In advance of what is anticipated to be the first true “post-pandemic” holiday season, digital marketing agency NetElixir released its 2022 holiday e-commerce sales forecast calendar. Their data forecasts suggest that aggregate e-commerce sales will experience a 7% YoY increase in the November to December holiday shopping period compared to last year’s sales data, with total online sales likely to exceed 20% of total retail sales in the nation.
“I am more optimistic than other forecasters regarding the upcoming holidays,” says Udayan Bose, Founder and CEO at NetElixir. “My forecast comes from aggregating recent online sales trends, an analysis of key macro expectations guiding the e-commerce landscape, and a hunch about consumer behavior gleaned from decades in the business. This year will not be without its own set of challenges, but I strongly believe we will have another unique and fulfilling year. Now is the time for retailers to plan their pivots and get a headstart on the holiday rush. We’re here to help guide those strategies in any way we can.”
Key insights, broken down by week, are as follows:
- Week of November 13: Holiday deals will start even earlier this year, as liquidation sales set the scene in the months leading up to the holiday season.
- Week of November 20: Deep discounting will not be limited to blockbuster days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday; expect week-long promotions starting the Monday before Thanksgiving. Retailers should look to get creative with category-level promotions and brand storytelling in order to entice customers to their products.
- Week of November 27 and December 4: We anticipate some large retailers to test creative promotional strategies during these weeks, especially within their Performance Max campaigns. Mid-size and smaller businesses will need to be nimble and ready with their game plans to successfully compete.
- Week of December 11: BNPL (buy-now-pay-later) models have been a prime driver of online growth and we expect this trend to continue, especially as the holidays draw closer. Make any updates in terms of shipping and payment options clear to your online shopper, as we expect inventory issues to linger.
- Week of December 18: The growing popularity of BOPIS has led to a continued increase in the percentage of last-minute, pre-Christmas online sales, especially on mobile. We expect online shopping volume to spike again this week throughout the 22nd.
- Week of December 25: Post-Christmas sales promotions will influence the “Me-Buy” week, which will see more consumers shopping for themselves.
Additional insights include, but are not limited to:
- November 20, November 21, November 24, November 25, November 28, December 4, December 5, December 11, December 12, and December 18-22 are the days during the holiday shopping season that are forecast to experience the highest YoY increase in online sales volume, projected to exceed 20% YoY on each day.
- Shipping cut-off dates and product availability will be the key limiting factors this year.
NetElixir has been accurately tracking holiday e-commerce sales forecasts for 10+ years. The agency leveraged its proprietary customer analytics technology, LXRInsights, to track and analyze real-time data of approximately 75 retail customers, ranging from small-to-mid sized businesses to enterprises. The team then utilized a proprietary forecasting model to convert the data into predictions. Data collection spanned seven e-commerce categories (including apparel, beauty, home furnishings, consumer electronics, and more) that track mobile and desktop data, broken down by state, on website sessions, website orders, AOV, website revenue, first purchase latency, and repeat purchase latency.
Current forecasts are subject to change and assume that there will not be an additional Amazon Prime Day or other one day sales event by another large retailer. NetElixir shared their full results, data analysis, and more during a webinar. The webinar, titled 2022 Holiday Readiness: E-Commerce Forecast can be viewed here.
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